Pulse Media


Just a guess

According to the BBC, the initial strategy of Israel was to bomb Lebanese infrastructure in the hope, that the Lebanese government would rein in Hizbollah. How come, people living as far away as western Europe or the US and who have nothing to do with Israel, Lebanon or the Middle East, other than being interested, were able, at the time, to see, that bombing Lebanon would not make any difference to the Lebanese leadership's ability to influence Hizbollah militarily, and, that it was more likely to bring more support to Hizbollah than anything else? It sounds a bit like the war in Iraq. From the very beginning many of us knew we were being lied to by the UK and US governments about the reasons for war. Some politicians and academics who supported the war, now claim they didn't realise they had been lied to. Those of us who did realise, were apparently just guessing. Either we are lucky guessers, or we have psychic abilities. Or maybe we are just honest.

Dear [Jez],

Yes, I think you were indeed just guessing, since the intelligence
available to both of us at the time was that Saddam Hussein likely did
possess weapons of mass destruction, had a history of aggression towards
his neighbours, and also had a dreadful human rights record.

Yours sincerely,

Niall Ferguson.

[Jez] wrote:

> Mr Ferguson,
> Regarding your appearance on QT. You are supposed to be not only "one
> of the hundred most influential people", but a historian and what's
> more a specialist in imperialism. Yet you claim to have been lied to
> over the war on Irak. Are you suggesting all those who weren't
> historians, including other "influential" people, but also 'ordinary'
> people such as myself who opposed the war were just guessing that the
> war was illegal and wrong, and that we were jsut 'lucky' to have
> guessed correctly?
> What is a historian for you? Is it an opinion maker, spinning for the
> establishment, or is it someone who can reason on the basis of
> historical fact? As a specialist in imperialism, I believe you should
> be a little more clued up as to the similarities between old fashioned
> imperialism and the kind of neo-imperialism quite evident today.
> Sincerely,
> [Jez]